Qin, Q. et al. Journal of Critical Care. Published online: September 2 2016
Objective: Shock, the most common severe emergency syndrome, has a complicated etiopathogenesis, is difficult to identify, progresses quickly, and is dangerous. Early identification and intervention play determining roles in the final outcomes of shock patients, but no specific scoring system for shock has been established to date.
Methods: We collected 292 shock patients and analyzed the correlation between 28-day prognosis and the Acute Physiologic Assessment and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), Modified Early Warning System (MEWS), and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scoring systems. According to the previous result, we established a new MEWS scoring system based on the conventional MEWS, which also included age and transcutaneous oxygen saturation. Some of the items with a strong correlation with the 28-day prognosis were selected to establish the new MEWS scoring system. We then evaluated the predictive efficacy of the new MEWS scoring system on 28-day prognosis and the correlation with other scoring systems.
Results: Some indexes, including age, transcutaneous oxygen saturation, arterial blood pH and blood lactic acid, serum sodium, serum potassium, HCO3, and red blood cells deposited, differed significantly between the non-surviving and surviving groups (P < 0.05). The area under the curve (AUC) of the APACHE II, MEWS, shock index, and SOFA scoring systems for 28-day prognosis indicated a critical predictive efficacy. Receiver operating characteristic curves indicated that the MEWS AUC was 0.614, new MEWS AUC was 0.696, and APACHE II AUC was 0.785, suggesting superiority of the new MEWS to the conventional MEWS but inferiority to the APACHE II. Interestingly, the correlation efficient of the traditional MEWS and the new MEWS was 0.81. The correlation efficient of these scoring systems with other indexes, including lactic acid and hemoglobin, were <0.3.
Conclusions: The new MEWS scoring system could be an independent indicator to reflect shock severity. It has higher predictive efficacy in septic shock, especially for 28-day prognosis.
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